We don't try to work out which team is going to win, just the probability of each result. If our probability is significantly above that implied by bookmakers odds, we bet.
We don't expect to win every game, but over a series of games the strategy will make money.
Since the system was put live 3 years ago, it has returned over 600% pa, with a Sharpe ratio of over 10 (a standard measure of consistency). Bookmakers have extremely sophisticated models too but are pushed away from their fair value odds by the bets of less sophisticated gamblers. We aim to expoit this.
The strategy was developed three years ago and the logic and thresholds have remained the same. Since then it has remained profitable. This is very important. It is easy to find a strategy that looks like it works using historical data but then fails to work when executed. This is known as overfitting.
We bet before we upload our analysis so publishing our tips and statistics does not affect our profit. We will consider charging subscriptions in the future, but not for our first valued visitors. We want to gain popularity through word of mouth. Please register your interest below to ensure you can view this site for free.
|Home||Result||System Odds||We Bet At||Away|
|Fixture||Our Odds||Our Probabilities|
|Results Score||Goal Attempts Score|
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