Probabilistic Approach

We don't try to work out which team is going to win, just the probability of each result. If our probability is significantly above that implied by bookmakers odds, we bet.
We don't expect to win every game, but over a series of games the strategy will make money.

Excellent Returns

Since the system was put live 3 years ago, it has returned over 600% pa, with a Sharpe ratio of over 10 (a standard measure of consistency). Bookmakers have extremely sophisticated models too but are pushed away from their fair value odds by the bets of less sophisticated gamblers. We aim to expoit this.

No Overfitting

The strategy was developed three years ago and the logic and thresholds have remained the same. Since then it has remained profitable. This is very important. It is easy to find a strategy that looks like it works using historical data but then fails to work when executed. This is known as overfitting.

Why Publish Predictions?

We bet before we upload our analysis so publishing our tips and statistics does not affect our profit. We will consider charging subscriptions in the future, but not for our first valued visitors. We want to gain popularity through word of mouth. Please register your interest below to ensure you can view this site for free.

Since inception, the system has consistently been profitable for over 5 seasons
with an average return of over 600% pa.


This weeks betting tips: (updated every Thursday)
Updated: 22/08/18.

Home Result System Odds We Bet At Away
The system recommends bets when our computed probability is above that implied by bookmaker odds (with an additional threshold).
To reiterate, we do not try to work out which team is going to win, just the probability of each result. If our probability is significantly above that implied by bookmakers odds, we bet.
That means you should not expect to win each game, but over a series of games the strategy makes money.
We recommend you bet no more than 20% of the money you can afford to lose in your account each week. We encourage responsible gambling.

Our calculated odds and probabilities:
Compare these against current market odds.
Fixture Our Odds Our Probabilities
H D A H D A
Converting odds (UK fractional odds) to probabilities:
To convert any odds to a mathematical probability, you just need to divide the potential loss by the sum of the potential loss and profit. In the simplest case, 1/1, you either make 1 profit (1 plus your stake returned) or lose 1. The probability in this case would be 1/(1+1) = 50%.
In the case where the fractional odds are 3/1, the probability would be 1/(3+1) = 25%.


Our current ELO point scores:
You may wish to use these to develop your own strategies based on your own particular risk profile.

Results Score Goal Attempts Score
Pos Team H A Rank H A Rank

Performance Chart: (best viewed on smaller phones in landscape.)
Average return pa: 630%. This means it has made over 6 times the average stake per week per year.
Sharpe ratio: 13. Max Drawdown: 190%: Average bets per week: 4.

Risk Management:
The largest drawdown over 7 years of backtesting was 190%. Assume you bet £1 per game; that means an average stake per week of £4. This means it is possible to lose £8 pounds (8 bets in a row) before winning again but the strategy is successful overall. We, therefore, recommend you only ever bet a maximum of 20% of the money you can easily afford to lose in your account in total per week (unless you are experienced in probability and risk analysis.)

Betting History:
We only show the last 20 bets to protect our IP. We may provide more history on request.

Date Prediction Odds Profit/Loss

Contact Us

mail@soccerelo.com

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Please use our analysis with sensible risk management. All strategies have periods when you can lose money.
We encourage responsible gambling. If you hope to win a single game, we believe you should not use this site.